12.09.2025
Safety and security of supply in maritime areas at stake - new study opens up three future scenarios in the Baltic Sea
Finland is practically an island: Our security of supply and the functionality of our society rely on sea transport. But what happens if our maritime connections are compromised? How do we prepare for an unstable future in the Baltic Sea?
The newly published report attempts to answer these questions. Maritime spatial planning: Security of supply for maritime industries and the overall safety of the maritime area.
The report, carried out by Capful and commissioned by the Finnish Maritime Spatial Planning Coordination Group, discusses the critical role of Finnish maritime spatial planning in supporting security of supply and overall safety. The report provides a snapshot of security in the Baltic Sea, creates three alternative scenarios for the future in an uncertain global political situation and presents a vision of how we can jointly strengthen overall security in Finland's maritime areas.
In the first scenario, ‘in the vortex of the great power struggle’, the power struggle of the great powers is causing increasing geopolitical instability in the Baltic Sea region and security risks are increasing. The second scenario, ‘In the Eye of the Storm’, opens the perspective of a situation in which military action in the southern parts of the Baltic Sea endangers maritime connectivity throughout the Baltic Sea region. In the third scenario, ‘Winds of relaxation’, geopolitical tensions are pushed backwards and economic, political and defence cooperation is close through NATO and the EU.
Significance of the North at Sea
The role of Northern Ostrobothnia and Northern Finland can be seen especially in the first two scenarios. If the situation escalates and maritime logistics are disrupted in the Baltic Sea, the importance of the west coast and its ports will be emphasised. In terms of security of supply and safety in Northern Ostrobothnia, key ports would be the ports of Oulu, Raahe and Kalajoki.
‘If port connections are completely cut off, then land connections to Sweden and Norway via the coastal area of the Bothnian Bay are a lifeline for Finland. Connectivity through the North improves and replaces disrupted maritime traffic", says Planning Director Markus Erkkilä Regional Assembly of Oulu Region.
The scenarios mapping alternative scenarios may not be realised as such. The scenarios are usually implemented as a combination of different models.
“It may even happen that, in our opinion, the most improbable things presented in the scenario are starting to materialise. This was the case after the completion of the first maritime spatial plan and scenarios in 2019 and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” remarks the Land Use Manager. Rauno Malinen Regional Assembly of Oulu Region.
The need for cooperation in maritime areas
The scenarios show that the future of the Baltic Sea is uncertain in many ways as climate change, geopolitical tensions and environmental threats challenge maritime stakeholders. The study highlights the main risks and at the same time shows that solutions are possible – as long as the stakeholders coserve as.
"Strengthening self-sufficiency and the vitality of coastal areas, developing cooperation between authorities and utilising digitalisation are concrete ways to increase stability in our marine area", summarises the planner of maritime spatial planning cooperation. Timo Rantanen.
The overall safety vision of the report has been drawn up in cooperation in cooperation with various stakeholders, and maritime spatial planning plays a key role in its implementation. In planning, various interests can be combined, information shared and extensively prepared, and the use of marine areas can be developed safely and sustainably. In addition, the good state of the marine environment and, for example, preparedness for oil spills are an essential part of national security.
The Regional Assembly of Oulu Region is a member of the Maritime Spatial Planning Coordination Group, which consists of eight coastal Regional Assemblys. The Ministry of the Environment also participates in the work. The Regional Assemblys have been carrying out maritime spatial planning since 2016. There are 11 areas of cooperation, such as energy, tourism, transport and the state of the marine environment. Maritime spatial planning is the coordination and cooperation of the needs of different stakeholders. The network consists of nearly 1,000 members.
Additional information:
https://merialuesuunnittelu.fi/
meriskenaariot.info/merialuesuunnitelma/
Markus Erkkilä, Head of Planning, Regional Assembly of Oulu Region
tel. +358 40 685 4045, markus.erkkila(at)pohjois-pohjanmaa.fi
Rauno Malinen, Land Use Manager, Regional Assembly of Oulu Region
tel. +358 50 433 0306, rauno.malinen(at)pohjois-pohjanmaa.fi
Essi Kärpijoki, Coordinator of Maritime Spatial Planning Cooperation
tel. +358 40 707 3750, essi.karpijoki(at)mspfinland.fi
Timo Rantanen, designer of maritime spatial planning cooperation
tel. 041 454 8002, timo.rantanen(at)mspfinland.fi
